Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
